Will defeat change Ways of Modi, Shah?

Editorial in  The Asian Age, Nov 08, 2015

(It will be interesting to see how the BJP proceeds to shield Mr Modi and Mr Shah from a natural political downsizing after the Bihar loss. All make mistakes. The wise learn wisdom from the first mistake, the fools will not from any number of mistakes. They are like what is said of the Papal collegium before Francis, which thinks it can never make mistakes, being protected by the infallibility syndrome. To make it abundantly clear to the public, even when they make blunders they don’t admit it to the public until they are left with no followers. Let it not happen to Modi and Shah. james kottoor, editor)

The Assembly election in Bihar was thought to be close, but the Sunday result has turned out to be one-sided. It is the crushing nature of the defeat — after Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed extraordinary interest in the outcome — that looks to transform the result from a matter pertaining to a single state to possibly one which is a counter-narrative to what has obtained under the leadership of Mr Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.

In remarks to the media after the win, RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose political obituary had been written long ago by observers while his party turned topped the party table, made no bones about his ambition to mount a challenge to the Narendra Modi government nationally.

Bihar’s election-time “mahagathbandhan”, or grand alliance of the JD(U), RJD, and Congress, of course, will be able to make a national pitch to rope in other Opposition parties in a common-themed political front if it remains cohesive at the parliamentary level, without allowing the individual ambitions of particular parties or leaders to overwhelm other partners.

For the BJP, the news is indeed bad. Its Rajya Sabha numbers will decline after Sunday’s abysmal showing instead of increasing as the party had hoped. This will make the passage of market-oriented reforms in favour of industry and trade even more difficult than it was before the Bihar defeat.

At the same time, the BJP’s NDA allies, who have appeared less than enthusiastic about its push for some of the reforms, especially the land acquisition law, could grow even less keen, for fear of alienating the electorate even further in the light of the Bihar result.

The Shiv Sena has lost no time in blaming the defeat on the PM (and many even in the BJP might agree) personally, and could behave in contrary ways in relation to its partner in Maharashtra. Bihar was the BJP’s first electoral test in the Hindi heartland and a major state after last year’s Lok Sabha poll and simultaneous state elections, and could have a carry-on effect in other states, including in crucial Uttar Pradesh.

It will be interesting to see how the BJP — as a political institution — proceeds to shield Mr Modi and Mr Shah from a natural political downsizing after the Bihar loss, even if this is not on the formal plane. For the duo, the licking in Bihar has followed the humiliation in Delhi earlier this year, and may contribute to the growing belief that the PM and the BJP chief need to change their ways. This could, if the PM summons practical wisdom, lead to less “arrogance”, not concentrating powers in the PMO, and respecting the Opposition in Parliament and outside. We could also see the “rising intolerance” being reined in — at last.