What the Polls Say: About Super Tuesday and Beyond

By ELIZABETH WILLIAMSON, New York Times, MARCH 1, 2016 – Photo Credit  Cooper Neill for The New York Times

                          (Note: Just a taste only of Super Tuesday  in US. What is note-worthy in US campaign is the people’s participation in the election of their supreme commander, the President, unlike in India where this is decided by the  party men’s secret arrangements  and adjustments. Often the name of the PM candidate, especially in the case of the Congress, is kept hidden from the  voters. Who wants to vote for a PM whom the  electorate know nothing about? This party monopoly or dictatorship must go.  Some say it is going to be  “  Trump tsunami”. Probably the water will rise higher in the case of Hilary Clinton. We have to wait and see. This    suspense is what is most exciting in US election which makes it all the more popular. If Trump gets nominated in the Republican camp, will Hilary or Sanders in  James KottorDemocratic camp be a better person to beat Trump next November? All are discussing this question now.  No one knows, until the last   election day. That vets the curiosity. interest and active participation in the voting public. james kottoor, editor)                                      

                    An array of new polls suggests that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will dominate Super Tuesday contests. If the polls are correct, the size of those wins could determine whether other candidates are left with any reasonable chance of securing the nomination.

Mr. Trump is winning in every state but Texas, where Ted Cruz is ahead, Tom Bevan, executive editor of Real Clear Politics, which has analyzed the polling, said this morning. Mr. Bevan added that Mr. Trump has double-digit leads in the other Super Tuesday states, except Oklahoma, where he leads by nearly 9 points.

“It will be a Trump tsunami. The question is how high has the water will rise,” Mr. Bevan said.Mrs. Clinton has double-digit leads in most Super Tuesday states, with her largest margins in the South. Mr. Sanders has a high double-digit lead in his home state of Vermont.

Trump’s dominance has turned pollsters’ attention to another question that’s a potential bright spot for Democrats: Who could beat Mr. Trump in the general election? Either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton would beat Mr. Trump, a new CNN/ORC pollsuggests. Mr. Sanders would best Mr. Trump 55 to 43 percent, according to the CNN/ORC poll. Mrs. Clinton would beat him 52 to 44 percent, according to the same poll, which was conducted last week.

Mrs. Clinton would face tougher contests against Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, the CNN/ORC poll says. She would lose to Mr. Rubio, 50 percent to 47 percent, and Ted Cruz would beat her by just one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, the poll says. The poll’s margin of error is +/-3 percent.

Mr. Sanders would beat Mr. Rubio by eight points, 53 percent to 45 percent, and he would beat Ted Cruz by a hefty 57 percent to 40 percent.November is a long way off, though. Will Republican voters, or Democrats for that matter, consider their candidate’s general election prospects as they pull the lever today? The answer to that, as to so many questions this strange season, is: Who knows?

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